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Post Election Analysis – Montgomery County 2015 Road Bond
The failure of the road bond was countywide; as voters in 15 of 32 consolidated precincts opposed the bond. With the release of voter history by the Montgomery County Elections Office, it is now possible to separate each voter into their normally assigned voting precinct. For reference, the voter history file contains the name, voter identification number (VUID), address, and the precinct in which each voter voted.
By separating each voter into their normally assigned voting precinct based on their voter registration, meaningful comparisons can be made. Remember, this election consolidated voting precincts. For example, a Precinct 6 voter usually voting at Deretchin Elementary voted at Galatas along with Precincts 3, 59, 71 and 78. Consolidated Galatas voting site was identified as Precinct AE. At Galatas (Precinct AE), there were 3,026 votes cast: 2,703 (89.65%) “Against,” 312 (10.35%) “For,” and 11 undervotes. The voter history file is used to determine that of the 3,026 votes cast at Galatas, 517 of those voters are normally assigned to voting Precinct 6.
Since the file does not indicate “how” each voter voted, the “for/against percentages” are applied to each precinct vote total from the consolidated voting precinct. This would indicate that of the 517 voters in Precinct 6 (Deretchin), 462 (89.65%) were “Against,” 53 (10.35%) were “For,” and 2 were undervotes. By applying this methodology to all normally assigned voting precincts, and then grouping the voting precincts into the Commissioner precincts, comparisons may be performed.
Summary of the election results:
- 28,588 total votes were cast countywide for all elections
- 28,363 votes were cast in the road bond election (225 under votes)
- Just over 10% of the registered voters cast a ballot
- 19% voted “Against”, 42.81% voted “For”
Number of Voters by Commissioner Precinct:
- Precinct 1: 6,062
- Precinct 2: 8,705
- Precinct 3: 10,993
- Precinct 4: 2,836 Note: Difference 8 incomplete ballots.
For/Against Percentage by Commissioner Precinct:
- Precinct 1: 1% “For”; 38.9% “Against” Result: PASS
- Precinct 2: 6% “For”; 51.4% “Against” Result: FAIL
- Precinct 3: 3% “For”; 73.7% “Against” Result: FAIL
- Precinct 4: 5% “For”; 49.5% “Against” Result: PASS
Percentage of Registered Voter Turnout by Commissioner Precinct:
- Precinct 1: 4%
- Precinct 2: 11.4%
- Precinct 3: 14.3%
- Precinct 4: 7%
